The top-level action in Japan moves to Tokyo Racecourse this Sunday (29 October) with the 168th running of the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn (2000m), and the spotlight is on last year’s victor Equinox.

The Tenno Sho Autumn is one of Japan’s most prestigious races and the competition is always heady. A full gate of 18 hasn’t been seen in six years and, this year, the original 13 nominees were reduced to 11. Standouts is a trio expected to rule the wagering – Equinox, Do Deuce and Prognosis.

The almost-certain favourite is international champion Equinox, who, at three years old last year, did not disappoint as the market’s elect. Starting from the Tenno Sho Autumn last year, he accomplished a sweep across four starts, all Group 1s, winning each in fine style. The most recent was June’s Takarazuka Kinen (2200m) at Hanshin.

Regular partner Christophe Lemaire, who just bagged the G1 Kikuka Sho (3000m), rode the equine powerhouse in trackwork on 18 October. He breezed over 1000 metres in 1m 07.6s last Wednesday (25 October) on the flat under an assistant to Miho-based trainer Tetsuya Kimura.

“Today’s work was orthodox. The important thing was training the horse as usual amid all the attention from the press,” said Kimura. “The focus was on having him remain patient and balanced. And the rider followed my instructions to the letter.”

Seen as one of Equinox’s top rivals is Do Deuce – 2022’s G1 Tokyo Yushun (2400m) winner. He followed that up with two starts in France last year, a fourth in the 2022 G2 Prix Niel (2400m) and a one-off-the rear finish in the 2022 G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2400m). Four months later he returned for a win in the 2023 G2 Kyoto Kinen (2200m) at Hanshin and now returns unraced for eight months. 

After watching his colt clock 52.8s up 800 metres on the hill course at Ritto, trainer Yasuo Tomomichi says he found Do Deuce ready and in better shape than he’d been ahead of the Kyoto Kinen. “I don’t think his weight will be up on Sunday but he does look to have put on more muscle and seems more powerful.”

Tomomichi admits the competition is daunting. “The number is small but they are very strong. I think this year’s Tenno Sho is a showing of Japan’s current best horses.”

Acknowledging the strength of Equinox, Tomomichi hangs his hopes on Do Deuce’s suitability to Tokyo. “He’s always been good racing to the left. He won the Derby (Tokyo Yushun) and I know he is suited to Tokyo.”

Equinox and Do Deuce will be meeting for the first time since their Tokyo Yushun clash and Tetsuya Kimura sees the latter as his biggest rival. “He’s the Derby winner and I always thought of him as a very strong horse,” Kimura says.

The highly consistent Prognosis is a year senior to Do Deuce and Equinox.

Prognosis is a son of Deep Impact and experienced over 2000 metres, with four wins from six starts over the distance. Yet to win a Group 1, his only prior start at the top-level was at Sha Tin in this year’s G1 FWD QEII Cup (2000m) in April, in which he placed an eye-catching second behind Romantic Warrior.

He goes to the Tenno Sho off a win in the G2 Sapporo Kinen (2000m) last August.

Yuga Kawada, who has won all of his six rides with Prognosis, rode work last Thursday (19 October), but stable staff had the reins this week. Prognosis was “switched on” from last week, says Mitsumasa Nakauchida, who trains at Ritto.

On Wednesday, Nakauchida said, “Because he felt quite energised, I focused on him relaxing and working with a nice rhythm. He gets exercise every day, so when the regular staff ride, he stays relaxed. Today, there was no big change from last week. He moved as he always does and I’d say he’s in excellent shape.”

The weather forecast through Sunday is for sunny skies, and fast times at Tokyo are expected to continue. The pace of the Tenno Sho Autumn is brisk from the start, but a strong pace is the norm and late speed is also crucial.

Traditionally a holdout of veteran racers, the past two years have seen three-old-colts grab top prize. The favourite has prevailed six times in the past eight runnings and figured out of the top three only once.