This year, for the first time since its inauguration in 1981, the Japan Cup, long the international highlight of the year, will feature only Japan-based runners. The 2400m invitational turf event at Tokyo Racecourse on Sunday, 24 November carries a winner’s prize of 300 million yen, a total purse of 648 million yen.

Oddly, despite the lack of foreign raiders running, more than the usual number of foreign raiders will be riding. Seven non-Japanese world-class jockeys will participate on Sunday — Ryan Moore, Oisin Murphy, Christophe Soumillon, William Buick, and Frankie Dettori, in addition to Japan year-round fixtures Mirco Demuro and Christophe Lemaire.

The 16 nominees for the 39th running of the Japan Cup were reduced by one with the withdrawal of this year’s Japanese Oaks winner Loves Only You, leaving only five G1 champs in the mix, none of which have captured a top-level race this year. Ages range from 3 to 7, with the youngest the sole female in the field – Curren Bouquetd’or, a stablemate to Almond Eye and runner-up in two of this year’s fillies’ classics.
 
Two-time G1 winner and 2017 Japan Cup runner-up Rey de Oro had been considered the most likely favourite this year, but the mood has shifted and it’s looking to be a four-way tossup for the top. Wagnerian, You Can Smile, Suave Richard and Rey de Oro are all holding steady at about four to one in odds predictions.

Rey de Oro has failed to finish better than fourth in his three starts this year, and though the first of those was a jaunt to Dubai, the latter two were at home. Connections expressed concern at his uncharacteristic results and even though his fourth last out in the G2 All Comers (2200m) at Nakayama has brought much hope that he’s back to his usual self, the question marks have knocked him from the spot of sole favourite.

Last year’s G1 Japanese Derby winner Wagnerian has fared better with three starts over 2000m this year. He finished in the money with a third in the G1 Osaka Hai in late March and his fifth-place in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn (2000m) after a 2-month layoff has raised expectations that he can once again ace the Tokyo 2400, as he did in the Derby.

The Heart’s Cry-sired Suave Richard, third in last year’s Japan Cup and the 2018 G1 Osaka Hai winner, topped Rey de Oro twice this year, with his thirds in the Dubai Sheema Classic in March and the Takarazuka Kinen in June. His seventh in the Tenno Sho Autumn followed a 4-month absence bettered his Tenno Sho finish of last year by three, and seems to put him within reach of the Japan Cup winner’s circle.

The four-year-old You Can Smile, who has yet to win a G1, has nonetheless proven the most consistent, with nine finishes in the top three and only two off the board since his debut. This year he has won two G3 events and posted a fifth in the Tenno Sho Spring and fourth in the autumn version. He has proven, with his win of the 3400m G3 Diamond Stakes at Tokyo this year that he has the stamina and speed to ace the Tokyo 2400. He will, however, be running at 2400m for the first time in his 13 career starts.

In addition to the four likely top choices is this year’s Dubai Sheema Classic second Cheval Grand, winner of the 2017 Japan Cup and fourth in this race in 2018. He is returning from three overseas bids for his first race in Japan this year. He has never figured all that far off the front and a return to familiar turf could well see him make the money.

Gunning for his first G1 win on his second bid is Muito Obrigado, winner of the G2 Copa Republica Argentina (2500m) at Tokyo on 3 November. In the saddle will be Japan’s current leading jockey Christophe Lemaire.

Another rather unusual pairing is Frankie Dettori with Look Twice, a very consistent six-year-old who has six wins and seven seconds from 20 starts, all predominately in the 2000-2500m range, but now taking on his very first G1 event.

Danburite, Etario and Curren Bouquetd’or are three more names being bantered about in hopes of raising the return. All in all, it’s going to be a very tough race to call.