On Sunday (24 December), 16 runners will compete in the 68th running of the G1 Arima Kinen (2500m) at Nakayama Racecourse for the first prize of 500 million yen (approx. HK$26.55 million), Japan’s top first-place bounty – a purse equalled only by that of the Japan Cup.

This year, Equinox, last year’s Arima champion and Japan’s top racehorse, and super filly Liberty Island, are both out of the picture. Their absence at the year-end gala has thrown bucketfuls of hope onto the usual Arima optimism, now erupting into a euphoric mood of “anything can happen.”

This Thursday (21 December) morning, the day after Arima nominees went through their final paces, the difficulty of picking a winner was clear. The front pages of the colorful sports newspapers trumpeted different names – Justin Palace, Sol Oriens, Titleholder, Do Deuce, Stars On Earth and Through Seven Seas.

More bases were covered by write-ups on Tastiera, 2-1-2 in this year’s classics but racing amid older horses for the first time; Harper, only once out of the top three but, other than her debut, her first time against males; and Group 2 winner Pradaria, debuting at Nakayama.

Reflecting the optimism was Haruki Sugiyama, Japan’s current top trainer for wins, only eight years after opening shop. Sugiyama is fielding Deep Impact-sired Justin Palace. The distance-loving, four-year-old colt posted 1-1-3-2 this year (three of those Group 1s).

“Justin Palace’s performance has really buoyed us this year and the mood of the entire stable has improved,” said Sugiyama, who celebrates his 42nd birthday on Sunday. “To happen to have a contender in the race on that day…well, it’d be nice if something good happened.”

Filly Stars On Earth, third in the G1 Japan Cup (2400m) and back again with Christophe Lemaire, will be racing at Nakayama for the second time and it’ll be her longest race by 100m.

But Lemaire’s smiles post-workout Wednesday (20 December) showed he was pleased. “Her response was amazing. She’s got stamina. She’s got heart,” he said.

Through Seven Seas, another talented female in a field expected to boast six, worked alone on the Miho woodchip course under an assistant trainer. Returning from a fourth-place in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2400m), she’ll be partnered with Kenichi Ikezoe, who rode her to a neck second behind Equinox in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen (2200m), and has a record four Arima wins.

Also at Miho, Sol Oriens has yet to figure out of the payoffs this year. 1-2-3 in this year’s classics, he too will be meeting older competitors for the first time in what will be his third time over the Nakayama inner course, where he claimed the G1 Satsuki Sho (2000m) in April. He’s getting a new partner in Yuga Kawada, still gunning for his first Arima win.

And mention must go to Titleholder, whose third Arima will be his last run, capping a career that has seen him claim three Group 1s, but not the Arima. With a 1-2-5 this year, hopes are high he might just go out in glory.

G1 Japanese Derby (2400m) winner Do Deuce and Yutaka Take reunite for the Arima.  Take had ridden Do Deuce in all his starts, at home and abroad, until the Tenno Sho Autumn.

Do Deuce was showing improvement. Take rode work on 13 December and said: “Turning into the straight, he changed to his left lead right away. Always favouring his right, before he’d been very reluctant to switch. To be able to change leads smoothly like this means he’s going to be able to bring out his best more.”

Of his partnership with Do Deuce, the 54-year-old racing legend said, “We had the Arc (a 19th-place finish) and Dubai,” referring to Do Deuce’s sudden withdrawal from the Dubai Turf earlier this year. “We’ve had a lot of rough times. But, this time might just turn all those grey skies blue.”