Numbers shapes as a leading contender in the HK$26 million BMW Hong Kong Derby (2000m) on Sunday (22 March) but, despite being confident about his mount’s credentials, jockey Derek Leung warns that race tempo will be decisive.

The Frankie Lor-trained gelding, who has two wins, a third and a fourth from four Hong Kong starts, is expected to be near the top of the betting when the starting gates open before a packed Sha Tin Grandstand.

Already a Group 3 winner in Hong Kong after taking February’s Centenary Vase Handicap (1800m) in commanding style, his merits were not seriously dented by a gallant fourth in the HK$13 million Hong Kong Classic Cup (1800m). He jumped as the second-favourite that day, though the blistering pace set by front-running Akashvani did not aid his cause.

“He ran a fast tempo (in the Hong Kong Classic Cup), and it was not so simple for him,” said Leung, who has been on board for each of Numbers’ Hong Kong runs. “But now we know more about the horse and how good he is. So, we know how to judge the pace.

“I think it won’t be as quick as last time, and that, in this race, quite a few horses will try to be handy to get the good positions. So, the first turn will be the key.”

Numbers, who has drawn barrier 13 for the Sunday showpiece, is one of only two runners in the field with experience over the Derby distance in Hong Kong – a Class 2 win over course and distance at the end of December. David Eustace’s Seraph Gabriel, who has drawn gate 12 on Sunday, is the other.

“The draw hasn’t helped him,” Leung said. “I will still try to go forward a little bit. There’s no doubt he can handle (2000m), and on Sunday, I’m sure he will run very well.

“Quite a few horses have a decent chance. But I think the main danger is the tempo,” Leung added.

Lor is similarly focused on the race shape when assessing Numbers’ prospects.

“For me, the first section (in the Hong Kong Classic Cup) was just a little bit quick,” Lor said. “He was still not bad – he finished fourth. Going to the 2000m, I think the jockey will slow him.”

Lor, who has saddled seven winners in the last month, has an enviable hand on Sunday with two leading prospects. The other is Stormy Grove, who was mightily impressive when sealing an unexpected victory in the Hong Kong Classic Cup. The 2021/22 Hong Kong Champion Trainer’s cause is further aided by the contrasting pace profiles of his two runners.

“Yes, I’m happy. You can see, Numbers will always go forward. And (Stormy Grove) will come from behind. I think this is good,” he added.

Stormy Grove’s rider, Harry Bentley, is cautiously optimistic that his mount, drawn in gate seven, can repeat his Hong Kong Classic Cup heroics.

“We’ll keep to the same game plan and ride him patiently, and hope he can show that impressive turn of foot once again,” Bentley said. “But we need a good pace – just as long as things are even and smooth, then I expect him to put in a really good run.”

Lor said it has been a tricky task, preparing Stormy Grove for a Derby run.

“Before he came to Hong Kong, he was a bit nervous – he would kick inside the box. And overseas, he was running anti-clockwise. In Hong Kong, we needed to teach him to change leg in the straight. We spent a lot of time working on him – I need to say thank you for my work rider.”

Lor will also be represented in the 14-runner field by three-time 1200m-winner Regal Gem, who steps from gate four and will be ridden by Alexis Badel.

The remainder of the field features Little Paradise (drawn in gate 10), Sagacious Life (2), Invincible Ibis (3), Patch Of Cosmo (6), Beauty Bolt (11), Emblazon (8), Top Dragon (1), Regal Gem (4), Juneau Pride (5), Dazzling Fit (14) and Pope Cody (9).

Sunday’s (22 March) 10-race programme at Sha Tin begins with the Class 4 Luger Handicap (1600m) at 1pm. The 149th BMW Hong Kong Derby (2000m), worth HK$26 million, is scheduled as Race 7 at 4.05pm.