Few saw it coming. Correction, nobody saw it coming, but the two Hong Kong trainers who got off to a flyer last September remain clear of the pack as March turns to April.
Ricky Yiu and Francis Lui have been rivals in various guises for the better part of five decades, first as journeymen jockeys in the mid-1970’s and early 1980’s (Lui led that race with 36 winners to Yiu’s 11) and for the last 25 years as two of Hong Kong’s most familiar homegrown handlers.
Most of those years have been spent in vain pursuit of John Size and John Moore – who now have a remarkable 18 titles between them – but Size only wrapped up his 11th crown by 78 wins to 75 in July on the final day of last season, having led by 54-40 at the beginning of April.
A measure of the leap made by Yiu and Liu is shown by the fact that neither finished in the top 10 last season. Liu finished 11th on 31 wins with Yiu four places back on 29 but both have thrived through the first seven months of the current campaign with results that are strikingly similar.
Yiu has led for the most part – taking a lead of seven into 2020 – but Lui has reduced the gap bit by bit and both men have maintained impressive strike rates while sending out fewer runners than all their five nearest pursuers.
“Fit and healthy horses,” is the simple mantra of both men when asked about their consistency and Yiu leads by 45 to 44 as the duel moves into the crucial final third of the season.
Is it too late for one of the chasing pack to get into the argument? Moore’s golden run through the spring and summer of 2019 shows nothing can be taken for granted and Tony Cruz and Danny Shum (currently both 10 off the pace on 35) have plenty of promising horses yet to run.
A dramatic late run by perennial champion Size can’t be ruled out after a Sunday treble took him to 33 wins, but at this stage it still looks like there will be a new name on the trainers’ roll of honour in July.